The Looming Shadow of Cognitive Warfare: A Potential Threat to the 2024 South African Elections

by Given SHINGANGE

Cognitive warfare is not only an attack on what we think. It is an attack on our way of thinking (Zac Rogers)

Introduction

South Africa’s 2024 elections loom large, not just as a contest for political power but as a potential battleground for a new, insidious form of warfare: cyber-cognitive warfare. Fuelled by rising internet penetration and social media’s pervasive influence, this new battlefield threatens to weaponise misinformation and manipulate minds. This paper explores how rapid internet penetration, the ubiquity of social media, and the vulnerabilities they expose make South Africa’s population susceptible to manipulation through online information operations. To safeguard the integrity of democracy, we must dissect the arsenal of digital manipulation and prepare defences before the lines are drawn.

Defining the Battlefield: Cognitive Warfare

The Shifting Landscape of Warfare: Warfare has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent decades. We’ve moved beyond the physical battlefields of conventional war, entering an era defined by social and ideological threats. Think beyond tanks and bombs – imagine manipulation through mass media and sophisticated technologies.

A New Breed of War: Enter Cognitive Warfare: – This new type of conflict, dubbed “cognitive warfare,” is unlike anything we’ve faced before. While it draws elements from kinetic warfare and hybrid warfare, its reach and impact are far more sinister. Instead of fighting for physical territory, cognitive warfare focuses on controlling or altering how people process information. It’s essentially manipulating minds to achieve strategic goals.

Understanding Cognitive Warfare: Definitions vary, but the essence of cognitive warfare lies in using technology to influence, exploit, and ultimately, control human cognition. This manipulation often happens without the target’s awareness, making it even more insidious. It’s a silent battlefield where the enemy is your own mind. Cognitive Warfare is a term used since the 1990s, labelling various things in time. Dahl described CW as a strategy that impacts the Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop in terms of “decreasing its speed, decreasing its accuracy, or both.”[1]

However, the contemporary understanding of the concept is focused more on letting the enemy “destroy himself from within” by influencing the general population by attacking the human brain[2]

Bernal et al. offer a more elaborate definition: “cognitive warfare is the weaponization of public opinion by an external entity, for the purpose of influencing public and/or governmental policy or for the purpose of destabilizing governmental actions and/ or institutions.[3]

Currently, CW can be considered a conceptual descendant of psychological and information warfare, which have been influenced by advancements in the cyberspace domain. However, there are several notable differences between CW and the concepts. CW primarily focuses on influencing whole societies, not specifically military targets, and utilizes primarily “grey products” of propaganda

The Goals of Cognitive Warfare: Destabilization and influence are the primary objectives. Sowing discord within societies, shaping beliefs, swaying public opinion, influencing political outcomes, creating social unrest and instability, eroding trust in institutions and governments, and influencing actions are all part of the game. Imagine enemies subtly manipulating public opinion to weaken governments or trigger internal social unrest.

The arsenal of cyber-cognitive warfare is diverse. Misinformation, deliberate falsehoods spread to mislead, and disinformation, manipulated or fabricated information used to sow discord, are potent weapons. Cyber-enabled information operations and coordinated campaigns to disseminate these narratives through social media, online forums, and seemingly legitimate news outlets amplify their impact.

Not Just What We Think, But How We Think: Cognitive warfare isn’t just about attacking our thoughts, it’s about hijacking our entire thinking process. This means exploiting our mental biases, triggering emotional responses, and ultimately, guiding our actions to serve the attacker’s agenda.

Vulnerability in the Digital Age: South Africa’s Susceptible Landscape

South Africa’s rapidly growing internet penetration and social media usage create a fertile ground for cognitive warfare. According to Statista, internet penetration in South Africa is expected to reach 64.7% by 2024, and mobile data subscriptions exceeding 45 million create a fertile ground for cyber-cognitive warfare. Social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp significantly sway public discourse. The new kid on the block is TikTok, which is growing exponentially in terms of users. The difference between TikTok and the other social media platforms is that companies in the West do not own it, and it is seen as pushing the agenda of the Chinese government. This increased online engagement and a complex socio-economic landscape make the population susceptible to manipulation.

Existing societal vulnerabilities exacerbate this exposure. Socio-economic inequalities, political polarisation, and ethnic tensions provide fertile ground for divisive narratives to take root. The 2014 “Fees Must Fall” protests, the recent xenophobic attacks, and the July 2021 social unrest highlight how online misinformation can ignite real-world consequences.

South Africa’s susceptibility to the vulnerabilities of the digital age stems from a complex interplay of factors, ranging from infrastructure gaps and digital literacy deficiencies to regulatory limitations and evolving cyber threats.

Global Precedents: Learning from Past Battles

South Africa is not alone in facing the perils of cyber-cognitive warfare. The 2016 US elections stand as a stark reminder of its potential: Cambridge Analytica’s targeted micro-advertising and weaponised personal data exposed the vulnerability of democratic processes to online manipulation.

Closer to home, the Bell Pottinger scandal showcased how disinformation campaigns can be used to sow racial division and destabilise governments. Similar tactics have been deployed in elections across the globe, from Kenya to the Philippines, demonstrating the widespread application of cyber-cognitive warfare.

Cyber as a Modern Battlefield: Beyond Information Warfare

Cyber-cognitive warfare extends beyond manipulating public opinion. In recent conflicts, like the Ukraine-Russia war and the Israel-Palestine clashes, cyberattacks have targeted critical infrastructure, disrupting power grids and communication networks. These attacks aim to sow panic, cripple vital services, and undermine public trust in authorities.

The Battlefield: Cyber, Information, and Cognitive Warfare

Before delving deeper, it’s crucial to differentiate the various domains of warfare relevant to this discussion. Cyber warfare involves attacks on computer networks and infrastructure. Information warfare focuses on manipulating the information landscape through propaganda and misinformation. Psychological warfare aims to weaken an opponent’s morale and resolve.

Cognitive warfare takes the manipulation game a step further. It seeks to influence the target’s cognitive processes, including perception, memory, and reasoning, through targeted disinformation, emotional manipulation, and social engineering techniques. As François du Cluzel posits, it’s “an attack on truth and thought” to undermine free will and shape desired behaviours.

Preparing for the 2024 Battle: Building Defences and Fostering Resilience

The 2024 elections necessitate a multi-pronged approach to counter cyber-cognitive warfare. Media literacy initiatives to equip citizens with critical thinking skills and the ability to discern misinformation are crucial. Regulatory frameworks to hold social media platforms accountable for curbing the spread of harmful content are equally important.

Furthermore, fostering open and transparent dialogue across political and social divides can weaken the appeal of divisive narratives. The South African government, civil society organisations, and tech companies must work together to build resilience against cyber-cognitive attacks and safeguard the integrity of the 2024 elections.

Conclusion: Protecting Democracy in the Digital Age

Cyber-cognitive warfare is not a distant threat but a reality with immediate consequences. South Africa’s 2024 elections offer a critical test of the nation’s resilience against this emerging form of warfare. By acknowledging the vulnerabilities, learning from past examples, and building collective defences, South Africa can navigate the complex digital landscape and ensure that its democracy emerges more robust in the face of these new challenges.

The 2024 South African elections are critical in the nation’s history. The potential for cyber-enabled influence campaigns, particularly those employing cognitive warfare tactics, cannot be ignored. By understanding the threat landscape, equipping the populace with critical thinking skills, and promoting responsible online practices, South Africa can safeguard its democratic processes and ensure that informed citizens, not manipulated minds, decide the upcoming elections.

[1] Arden B Dahl, Command dysfunction: Minding the cognitive war, technical report (AU’s School of Advanced Air

and Space Studies, 1996).

[2] Alonso Bernal et al., Cognitive warfare: An attack on truth and thought, technical report (NATO and Johns

Hopkins University: Baltimore MD, USA, 2020), https://www.innovationhub- act.org/sites/default/

files/202103/Cognitive%20Warfare.pdf.

[3] Bernal et al., Cognitive warfare: An attack on truth and thought.

Read more